Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally.

Groundwater resources are vital to ecosystems and livelihoods. Excessive groundwater withdrawals can cause groundwater levels to decline1-10, resulting in seawater intrusion11, land subsidence12,13, streamflow depletion14-16 and wells running dry17. However, the global pace and prevalence of local groundwater declines are poorly constrained, because in situ groundwater levels have not been synthesized at the global scale. Here we analyse in situ groundwater-level trends for 170,000 monitoring wells and 1,693 aquifer systems in countries that encompass approximately 75% of global groundwater withdrawals18. We show that rapid groundwater-level declines (>0.5 m year-1) are widespread in the twenty-first century, especially in dry regions with extensive croplands. Critically, we also show that groundwater-level declines have accelerated over the past four decades in 30% of the world's regional aquifers. This widespread acceleration in groundwater-level deepening highlights an urgent need for more effective measures to address groundwater depletion. Our analysis also reveals specific cases in which depletion trends have reversed following policy changes, managed aquifer recharge and surface-water diversions, demonstrating the potential for depleted aquifer systems to recover.

Stakeholder integration predicts better outcomes from groundwater sustainability policy.

Natural resources policies that promote sustainable management are critical for protecting diverse stakeholders against depletion. Although integrating diverse stakeholders into these policies has been theorized to improve protection, empirical evidence is lacking. Here, we evaluate 108 Sustainability Plans under California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act to quantify how well stakeholders are integrated into plans and protected from groundwater depletion. We find that the majority of Sustainability Plans do not integrate or protect the majority of their stakeholders. Nevertheless, our results show that when stakeholders are more integrated into a Sustainability Plan, they are more likely to be protected, particularly for those that lack formal access to decision-making processes. Our findings provide strong empirical evidence that integrating diverse stakeholders into sustainability planning is beneficial for stakeholders who are vulnerable to the impacts of natural resource depletion.

Widespread and increased drilling of wells into fossil aquifers in the USA.

Most stored groundwater is 'fossil' in its age, having been under the ground for more than ~12 thousand years. Mapping where wells tap fossil aquifers is relevant for water quality and quantity management. Nevertheless, the prevalence of wells that tap fossil aquifers is not known. Here we show that wells that are sufficiently deep to tap fossil aquifers are widespread, though they remain outnumbered by shallower wells in most areas. Moreover, the proportion of newly drilled wells that are deep enough to tap fossil aquifers has increased over recent decades. However, this widespread and increased drilling of wells into fossil aquifers is not necessarily associated with groundwater depletion, emphasizing that the presence of fossil groundwater does not necessarily indicate a non-renewable water supply. Our results highlight the importance of safeguarding fossil groundwater quality and quantity to meet present and future water demands.

Global groundwater wells at risk of running dry.

Groundwater wells supply water to billions of people, but they can run dry when water tables decline. Here, we analyzed construction records for ~39 million globally distributed wells. We show that 6 to 20% of wells are no more than 5 meters deeper than the water table, implying that millions of wells are at risk of running dry if groundwater levels decline by only a few meters. Further, newer wells are not being constructed deeper than older wells in some of the places experiencing significant groundwater level declines, suggesting that newer wells are at least as likely to run dry as older wells if groundwater levels continue to decline. Poor water quality in deep aquifers and the high costs of well construction limit the effectiveness of tapping deep groundwater to stave off the loss of access to water as wells run dry.

Widespread potential loss of streamflow into underlying aquifers across the USA.

Most rivers exchange water with surrounding aquifers1,2. Where groundwater levels lie below nearby streams, streamwater can infiltrate through the streambed, reducing streamflow and recharging the aquifer3. These 'losing' streams have important implications for water availability, riparian ecosystems and environmental flows4-10, but the prevalence of losing streams remains poorly constrained by continent-wide in situ observations. Here we analyse water levels in 4.2 million wells across the contiguous USA and show that nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) of them lie below nearby stream surfaces, implying that these streamwaters will seep into the subsurface if it is sufficiently permeable. A lack of adequate permeability data prevents us from quantifying the magnitudes of these subsurface flows, but our analysis nonetheless demonstrates widespread potential for streamwater losses into underlying aquifers. These potentially losing rivers are more common in drier climates, flatter landscapes and regions with extensive groundwater pumping. Our results thus imply that climatic factors, geological conditions and historic groundwater pumping jointly contribute to the widespread risk of streams losing flow into surrounding aquifers instead of gaining flow from them. Recent modelling studies10 have suggested that losing streams could become common in future decades, but our direct observations show that many rivers across the USA are already potentially losing flow, highlighting the importance of coordinating groundwater and surface water policy.

Base of fresh water, groundwater salinity, and well distribution across California.

The depth at which groundwaters transition from fresh to more saline-the "base of fresh water"-is frequently used to determine the stringency and types of measures put in place to manage groundwater and protect it from contamination. Therefore, it is important to understand salinity distributions and compare defined bases of fresh water with salinity distributions and groundwater well depths. Here we analyze two distinct datasets: 1) a large set of total dissolved solids concentration (TDS) measurements (n = 216,754) and 2) groundwater well locations and depths (n = 399,454) across California. We find that 19 to 56% of the groundwater TDS measurements made at depths deeper than defined bases of fresh water pump fresh groundwater (TDS < 2,000 mg/L). Because fresh groundwater is found at depths deeper than the base of fresh water, current policies informed by base of fresh water assessments may not be managing and protecting large volumes of deep fresh groundwater. Furthermore, we find that nearly 4% of existing groundwater wells penetrate defined bases of fresh water, and nearly 16% of wells overlie it by no more than 100 m, evidencing widespread encroachment on the base of fresh water by groundwater users. Consequently, our analysis suggests that groundwater sustainability in California may be poorly safeguarded in some places and that the base-of-fresh-water concept needs to be reconsidered as a means to define and manage groundwater.

Groundwater level observations in 250,000 coastal US wells reveal scope of potential seawater intrusion.

Seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers can increase groundwater salinity beyond potable levels, endangering access to freshwater for millions of people. Seawater intrusion is particularly likely where water tables lie below sea level, but can also arise from groundwater pumping in some coastal aquifers with water tables above sea level. Nevertheless, no nation-wide, observation-based assessment of the scope of potential seawater intrusion exists. Here we compile and analyze ~250,000 coastal groundwater-level observations made since the year 2000 in the contiguous United States. We show that the majority of observed groundwater levels lie below sea level along more than 15% of the contiguous coastline. We conclude that landward hydraulic gradients characterize a substantial fraction of the East Coast (>18%) and Gulf Coast (>17%), and also parts of the West Coast where groundwater pumping is high. Sea level rise, coastal land subsidence, and increasing water demands will exacerbate the threat of seawater intrusion.

Hydraulic fracturing near domestic groundwater wells.

Hydraulic fracturing operations are generating considerable discussion about their potential to contaminate aquifers tapped by domestic groundwater wells. Groundwater wells located closer to hydraulically fractured wells are more likely to be exposed to contaminants derived from on-site spills and well-bore failures, should they occur. Nevertheless, the proximity of hydraulic fracturing operations to domestic groundwater wells is unknown. Here, we analyze the distance between domestic groundwater wells (public and self-supply) constructed between 2000 and 2014 and hydraulically fractured wells stimulated in 2014 in 14 states. We show that 37% of all recorded hydraulically fractured wells stimulated during 2014 exist within 2 km of at least one recently constructed (2000-2014) domestic groundwater well. Furthermore, we identify 11 counties where most ([Formula: see text]50%) recorded domestic groundwater wells exist within 2 km of one or more hydraulically fractured wells stimulated during 2014. Our findings suggest that understanding how frequently hydraulic fracturing operations impact groundwater quality is of widespread importance to drinking water safety in many areas where hydraulic fracturing is common. We also identify 236 counties where most recorded domestic groundwater wells exist within 2 km of one or more recorded oil and gas wells producing during 2014. Our analysis identifies hotspots where both conventional and unconventional oil and gas wells frequently exist near recorded domestic groundwater wells that may be targeted for further water-quality monitoring.

Local Groundwater Withdrawal Permitting Laws in the South-Western U.S.: California in Comparative Context.

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) aims to control, for the first time in California's history, the state's significant use and depletion of groundwater. SGMA gives local agencies a high degree of discretion in relation to a new permitting power, but the discretion is a double-edged sword: agencies gain maximum flexibility to tailor their regime to local conditions, yet the statute provides no direction on appropriate components of a groundwater permitting regime. We introduce SGMA and the broader legislative context to its permitting power, and we explain the continuing common law context in which the legislation operates. This information is used as the foundation for a comparative legal analysis of fundamental elements of permitting regimes. We compare a selection of six other south-western permitting regimes established in legislation for areas recognized as requiring intensive management through permitting: "special permitting areas" (SPAs). We find that permitting regimes in south-western SPAs share a structure containing several almost universal elements, although the policy settings that apply to those elements vary widely. The established permitting regimes in the other south-western states' SPAs may inform Californian agencies seeking to use their new permitting power for the first time, as well as water agencies further afield, as to important components of a permitting regime, and the different policy settings that could apply to those components. Californian local agencies, and its Department of Water Resources, which is charged with providing local agencies technical advice, should have regard to these permitting possibilities.

Drought planning and management: using high spatial resolution as part of the solution.

Water scarcity is intensified by drought, a phenomenon that impacts many sectors of society and affects virtually all climate zones. The Palmer drought indices are widely used by scientists and policy makers to understand drought and model its components. Despite the spatial heterogeneity and variability in variables required by the Palmer model, regional index values are most commonly used for real-time drought assessment. Local stakeholders charged with developing flexible and tailored water management policies have articulated the need for drought indices calculated at finer spatial resolutions than a regional scale. We use the Pacific Northwest United States (U.S.) as a study area to demonstrate the differences between drought indices calculated for U.S. climate divisions with those calculated at a 0.5° by 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution. Our results indicate that regional values of the two cumulative Palmer drought indices do not represent finer-resolution values well. For half of the study area, the pictures of drought (as determined by regional and finer-resolution values) are drastically different more than 30% of the time. Thus, quite often water managers do not have a clear understanding of the relative severity of drought in their area, which can have serious implications for drought mitigation and adaptation.

Gaining perspective on the water-energy nexus at the community scale.

Water and energy resources are interrelated but their influence on each other is rarely considered. To quantify the water and energy portfolios associated with a community's water-energy nexus (WEN) and the influence of geographic location on resources, we present the WEN tool. The WEN tool quantifies a community's transport (consumed for or lost before delivery) and nexus (energy for water and water for energy) resources so communities can assess their resource flows. In addition, to provide insight into the full range of impacts of water and energy resource acquisition and to frame the influence of geography on resources, we coin the term "urban resource islands". The concept of urban resource islands provides a framework for considering the implication of geography on a community's water and energy resource acquisition and use. The WEN tool and the concept of resource islands can promote communities to think about their hidden resources and integrate such concepts into their sustainability trade-off analyses and policy decisions. In this paper, we use Tucson, Arizona, United States as a case study.